Population Density and Armed Robbery in Nigeria: An Analysis of Variation Across States

Abstract

The occurrence and rate of crime in a society are often associated with factors such as unemployment, urbanization and the strength of law enforcement. In Nigeria, very little is known about the association between population density as an independent variable and the frequency and rate of crime. This study sought to address this puzzle. Data on reported cases of armed robbery and populations across the states of Nigeria in the year 2006 were analyzed using Pearson’s correlation and multiple regression analysis. The study shows statistically significant variation in the occurrence of crime across the states with Southern states recording more crimes and higher rates than Northern states. Population density was found to be a predictor of the volume of crime, but not the rate. The spatial analysis further shows that proximity to major cosmopolitan states may be a factor that contributes to the rate of crime in the country. The paper recommends the creation of a national database in order to address the problem of anonymity and put crime under control in the country.